economic policy

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The U.S. economy in 2026: What to watch for
2 months ago
- The U.S. economy in 2026 faces key issues including Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, stagflation risks from tariffs and labor market weakness, and political pressures on Fed independence.
- Tariffs are a major concern, raising consumer prices and production costs, with potential for Supreme Court intervention but administration likely to continue tariff policies.
- AI has limited labor market impact so far, with small disruptions in specific occupations, while AI bubble debates persist over stock valuations and adoption speed.
- The labor market is in a low-hire, low-fire state with 'meaningful' downside risks from rising unemployment and potential AI headwinds.
- Other issues include health care costs from reduced ACA subsidies, dangerous fiscal deficits, affordability concerns for consumers, and rising electricity prices due to grid investment and demand.
Trump Is Burning Down the House
2 months ago
- Trump's tariff plan is described as a disaster for America, even by the administration's own benchmarks.
- The article uses an allegory of contractors burning and smashing a house to criticize Trump's economic policies.
- U.S. manufacturing has declined over decades, with flat industrial production since 2007 and outdated military capabilities.
- A sensible policy for manufacturing might include subsidies, partnerships with allies, and clear trade rules, similar to the CHIPS and Science Act.
- Trump's approach undermines the CHIPS Act, imposes tariffs on allies like Canada, Mexico, and Europe, and creates market chaos.
- Tariffs are causing paralysis in credit markets, higher costs for auto suppliers in Michigan, and potential job losses.
- Even if tariffs were justified, the implementation is flawed, with confusion over exemptions disrupting supply chains.
- Defenders claim tariffs aim to reduce interest rates, but the 10-year Treasury yield has risen, contradicting this goal.
- Trump's policies are harming U.S. manufacturers and financial systems, despite his stated intent to save the economy.
The Era of Step-on-a-Rake Capitalism
2 months ago
- Trumponomics is not a coherent economic ideology but a personalist system focused on creating leverage through emergencies, threats, and demands for tribute.
- Trump uses emergency declarations extensively—nine in his first six months—to justify interventions like tariffs, which often lack legal or economic consistency.
- The threat-tribute method involves creating pain via tariffs or sanctions, accepting concessions (e.g., investments or policy changes), then removing the pain, as seen with Japan, the EU, and Intel.
- Unlike China's disciplined state capitalism, Trumponomics is erratic and self-serving, prioritizing Trump's control over economic growth or national interests.
- Corruption is evident in Trump's acceptance of gifts from foreign states and halting legal actions against allies who pay tribute, undermining U.S. policy for personal gain.
- Evidence shows Trump prioritizes personal benefit over strategic competition with China, such as reversing his TikTok sale mandate after meeting with a ByteDance investor.
Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America
2 months ago
- The UK serves as a cautionary tale for the U.S., highlighting economic stagnation and policy missteps despite historical ties.
- Key UK problems include NIMBYism hindering housing and infrastructure, excessive financialization concentrating the economy in London, and abrupt fiscal austerity damaging public services.
- Brexit reduced UK GDP by 6-8%, showing the risks of cutting off export markets, while energy scarcity from poor decarbonization plans hurt competitiveness and living standards.
- Direct government provision of services like the NHS is politicized and vulnerable to underinvestment, a lesson for U.S. health care debates.
- The U.S. should learn to avoid similar pitfalls: prioritize growth, manage debt gradually, maintain international markets, and ensure energy abundance.
Now at $50M: Ro Khanna "Why I Support a Billionaire Wealth Tax"
3 months ago
- The author argues for a billionaire wealth tax of 5% annually on total wealth, not income, to raise $4.4 trillion over a decade for public services.
- The tax aims to fund teacher salaries, affordable childcare, and healthcare, contrasting with Governor Newsom's income-based tax proposal that raises far less revenue.
- Wealth flight fears are dismissed, citing California's strong venture capital investment and political support for the tax despite billionaire opposition.
- The proposal extends to centimillionaires ($50M+), including wealth in irrevocable trusts, through the Ultra-Millionaire Tax Act.
- The fight is framed as a moral test, reversing anti-tax movements like Proposition 13, and a choice between supporting working people or the billionaire class.
Why Everyone Is Suddenly Talking About 'Universal Basic Capital'
3 months ago
- Universal Basic Capital (UBC) is proposed as a hedge against AI-induced inequality by giving everyone an ownership stake in AI companies.
- UBC differs from Universal Basic Income (UBI) by providing equity accounts instead of cash payments, potentially avoiding political hurdles related to taxes and welfare.
- The policy has bipartisan appeal, with examples like the 'Trump Accounts' bill and proposals from figures like Vivek Ramaswamy to grant stock accounts at birth.
- Critics warn that a government-controlled sovereign wealth fund model, as proposed by Bernie Sanders, could lead to regulatory capture and politicization of AI companies.
- Implementing UBC without careful design risks giving excessive control to political actors, undermining corporate independence and public oversight.

economic policy

The U.S. economy in 2026: What to watch for

Trump Is Burning Down the House

The Era of Step-on-a-Rake Capitalism

Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America

Now at $50M: Ro Khanna "Why I Support a Billionaire Wealth Tax"

Why Everyone Is Suddenly Talking About 'Universal Basic Capital'