future technology

Bilingual

We need a bigger touch screen
2 months ago
- Humans need space to express themselves, but screens are small and restrict movement to finger twitches and limited eye movement.
- The touch screen removed a barrier between people and technology, enabling more natural interaction.
- A desk-sized touch screen could offer a transformative experience, allowing full-body movement and peripheral vision.
- Such a screen would not just be a new device but a completely new kind of computing experience.
- Current mobile devices are useful, but we are missing the big picture of full-sized interactive surfaces.
<antirez>
2 months ago
- AI is currently useful for practical tasks like coding, translation, and image generation, but has not yet fundamentally advanced human knowledge.
- Rare breakthroughs like AlphaFold show AI's potential, but overall AI hasn't matched the brightest human minds for major scientific progress.
- If AI only brings incremental improvements, its social costs (job loss, upheaval) may outweigh benefits, making it a risky bet.
- The true value of AI lies in its future potential, such as revolutionizing medicine or addressing climate change within decades.
- Supporters of AI should argue based on future promise rather than current capabilities, which may be limited.
- Existential risks from AI are minimal but require vigilance, while social challenges need proactive government management.
- Investing in AI is worthwhile if it fulfills even part of its potential to transform humanity positively.
The AI Superforecasters Are Here
3 months ago
- AI superforecasters have emerged, with startups like FutureSearch and Preseen claiming significant success in prediction markets and stock market outperformance.
- These AI systems typically use large language models like ChatGPT or Claude, enhanced with 'scaffolds' for improved forecasting through extensive research and subagents.
- Current AI superforecasters are competitive with top human superforecasters, with performance metrics showing near parity in forecasting competitions like the Metaculus Cup.
- AI superforecasters offer advantages over humans: they are faster, more diligent, standardized, and can be accessed easily without the logistical challenges of hiring human experts.
- In finance, AI may have a special advantage, as evidenced by Preseen's bot outperforming humans in finance-focused forecasting competitions.
- The trend suggests AI forecasting capabilities are improving rapidly, with predictions that they will surpass human experts within the next year or two.
- AI superforecasters could transform decision-making in finance, business, government, and personal life by providing accessible, high-quality probabilistic forecasts.
- Prediction markets may remain important for epistemic infrastructure, providing canonical forecasts that aggregate AI opinions and mitigate biases across different AI systems.
- Publicly available AI superforecasters include FutureSearch (open for use) and Preseen (in closed beta), with standard AIs also offering some forecasting capability behind the state of the art.
- A potential future role for AI superforecasters is as an 'opinion layer' for AIs, enabling them to provide forecasts on controversial topics while remaining grounded in empirical benchmarks.

future technology

We need a bigger touch screen

<antirez>

The AI Superforecasters Are Here