industrial policy

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Maar hoe bouw je die cloud? - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- Europe cannot rely on US clouds due to privacy and geopolitical risks, and lacks adequate European alternatives.
- Market forces have failed to create a real European cloud, requiring industrial policy and government intervention.
- Successful European projects like Galileo and Airbus show that strategic investment and collaboration can overcome initial doubts.
- Governments must develop in-house technical expertise to effectively manage industrial policy and avoid missteps.
- Smart procurement, not traditional subsidies, can drive innovation by specifying requirements like European jurisdiction over data.
- Specific initiatives like 'Eumail', 'Eutube', and a European anti-DDoS service could fill critical gaps without competing with free US services.
- Open source is essential but not sufficient; it needs commercial support, training, and business models that avoid selling user data.
- A German-style agency like SPRIND (fast, expert-driven innovation funding) could be replicated across Europe to fund breakthrough projects.
- A coherent strategy includes enforcing privacy laws, creative procurement, hiring experts, consolidating industry (Airbus-style), and preparing for trade disputes.
- Multiple parallel efforts are needed: government in-house projects, smart procurement, improved subsidies, and new innovation agencies.
But how to get to that European cloud? - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- European governments cannot rely on US cloud providers and lack viable alternatives; market forces have failed to deliver a European cloud.
- Industrial policy is needed, requiring governments to develop deep industry knowledge to avoid failed projects.
- Past successes like Galileo and Airbus show Europe can overcome massive challenges with coherent strategy and funding.
- Complex IT projects often fail due to unclear goals and bureaucratic procurement; governments must regain in-house capability.
- Smart procurement can drive development of European services like Eumail, Eutube, and open-source alternatives to US tools.
- Subsidies must be redesigned to avoid bureaucracy and attract developers; models like Germany's SPRIND show promise.
- A coherent strategy includes enforcing privacy laws, creative procurement, hiring experts, and commissioning open-source improvements.
- Multiple simultaneous actions are needed: legal enforcement, procurement signals, talent development, and innovation agencies.
- Open source is a strong foundation but requires viable business models and support to compete with US giants.
- Europe must combine talent and funding to build a sovereign cloud, similar to creating an Airbus for the digital age.
Cloud Overview - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- Europe's digital dependency on US cloud providers is a sovereignty risk, as US law allows access to data and potential sanctions could disrupt critical services.
- European governments are ill-equipped to lead cloud independence, but financial regulators might force banks to diversify, creating a path for others.
- The cloud consists of varied services; Europe excels at low-level infrastructure (servers, storage) but lacks competitive high-level SaaS alternatives to US hyperscalers.
- GAIA-X and other initiatives have not solved the problem; more specific industrial policy and incentives are needed to build a European cloud ecosystem.
- Open source alone is insufficient; it requires robust IT operations and better productization to compete with US big tech.
- US cloud dominance threatens European privacy and security, especially under the Trump administration, which may exploit dependency for leverage.
- A coherent strategy includes building 'European Cloud Modules' and backup communication systems for critical services like government and healthcare.
The US Government Is Now a Shareholder in 26 Companies
3 months ago
- The US government has deployed $23.9 billion in direct equity investments across 26 companies, with a remaining legal capacity of $181 billion up to a $205 billion ceiling.
- Key sectors invested include critical minerals (e.g., MP Materials, 15% stake), semiconductors (e.g., Intel, 9.9% stake; xLight), quantum computing (9 companies), munitions (L3Harris), nuclear energy (Westinghouse), and steel (U.S. Steel golden share).
- The government uses a three-tool approach: direct equity (shareholder stakes), grants/loans (traditional support), and off-take agreements/price floors (guaranteed purchases, as with MP Materials).
- Private co-investors like J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs have contributed an additional $4.75 billion, with foreign partners such as Abu Dhabi's ADQ also participating.
- Next-wave sectors targeted for future investment include robotics/advanced manufacturing, drones/autonomous systems, shipbuilding, and critical minerals expansion, with robotics highlighted as a front-running opportunity.
- The program operates like a sovereign wealth fund, combining equity, grants, and purchase guarantees to create national champions and ensure commercial success.
Why jet engines aren't made in China
3 months ago
- Jet engines are a complex manufacturing challenge where China's state-capitalist model struggles due to slow iteration cycles, high regulatory barriers, and the need for deep process knowledge accumulated over decades.
- China excels in industries with fast iteration cycles, clear technological targets, and underserved demand (e.g., EVs, batteries), but jet engines lack these features, relying instead on reliability, certification, and a specialized supplier network.
- The commercial jet engine market has thin margins, extreme cost sensitivity, and rigorous certification (e.g., FAA/EASA), making entry difficult; China's CJ-1000A program faces delays and limited domestic sales without international certification.
- Military jet engines are more feasible for China due to captive demand and lower efficiency requirements, but they still lag Western counterparts by decades in performance and reliability.
- China's pursuit of jet engine indigenization is driven by strategic autonomy (autarky) and civil-military fusion, despite high costs and opportunity costs, as it ignores market feedback in favor of ideological goals.
- The West's decentralized capital allows asymmetric bets on innovations like supersonic jets and autonomous drones, while China focuses on scaling mature technologies, raising questions about long-term innovation competitiveness.

industrial policy

Maar hoe bouw je die cloud? - Bert Hubert's writings

But how to get to that European cloud? - Bert Hubert's writings

Cloud Overview - Bert Hubert's writings

The US Government Is Now a Shareholder in 26 Companies

Why jet engines aren't made in China