innovation

Bilingual

Why There Aren't More Googles
2 months ago
- Startups that reject acquisition offers often achieve greater success, with larger offers or IPOs later.
- Google and Facebook stayed independent because acquirers underestimated their value, not just idealism.
- Venture capitalists are overly conservative, driven by consensus, and miss truly bold innovative ideas.
- There is a funding gap between early seed rounds (e.g., $20k) and large VC rounds (e.g., $2M), leaving promising startups needing ~$200k underserved.
- The declining cost of startups creates an opportunity for new investors to fill this gap by making smaller, bolder investments.
- VC firms resist adapting to smaller investments, but evolving models could produce more breakthrough companies like Google.
Frighteningly Ambitious Startup Ideas
2 months ago
- Ambitious startup ideas often feel frightening because they challenge your identity and ambition.
- A new search engine could compete with Google by focusing on what hackers want, such as fast, clutter-free results.
- Replace email with a todo list protocol that gives recipients more control and is faster than Gmail.
- Universities may be partially replaced by diverse learning methods, separating credentials from education.
- Deliver internet drama via platforms like Netflix or through payment/streaming infrastructure companies.
- The next hardware visionary could come from a startup, following the example set by Steve Jobs and Apple.
- Revive Moore's Law through software that simplifies parallel computing, potentially via a 'sufficiently smart compiler' or a marketplace for optimization.
- Ongoing automatic medical diagnosis could replace reactive healthcare, despite resistance from medical traditions and false-alarm concerns.
- Tactically, start with small, seemingly harmless projects and expand westward rather than attacking big problems directly.
How to Get Startup Ideas
2 months ago
- The best startup ideas come from problems founders themselves have, not from trying to think up ideas.
- Successful startups often begin with a small, urgent need (a 'well') rather than a broad but shallow interest.
- Founders should 'live in the future' and build what seems missing, often by noticing gaps in their own experience.
- Avoid 'made-up' or 'sitcom' ideas; focus on real problems that users urgently need solved.
- Being at the leading edge of a changing field helps you notice opportunities that others miss.
- Turn off filters like 'unsexy' and 'schlep' to see valuable ideas that others avoid.
- If you need an idea quickly, look for unmet needs in your own life or others', or seek out dying industries ripe for replacement.
How to Be an Expert in a Changing World
2 months ago
- Confidence in beliefs can grow monotonically only in a static world; change undermines that certainty.
- Experts often fail because they rely on outdated knowledge about a changed world.
- Successful startup investors recognize that good ideas often seem bad initially due to recent changes.
- To avoid obsolete beliefs, explicitly acknowledge change and focus on being open-minded rather than predicting the future.
- New ideas arise from solving problems while valuing weird hunches, and betting on people (earnest, energetic, independent) over ideas is more reliable.
- Publicly betting on ideas, as investors do, creates strong incentives to correct outdated views.
- Accelerating change increases the challenge of not becoming a prisoner of one's own expertise.
What Microsoft Is this the Altair Basic of?
2 months ago
- Successful startups often seem lame or wrong when they first launch, like stepping into a swamp rather than climbing a mountain.
- Founders are drawn to promising ideas by instinct because they live in the future and sense something missing, even if they can't articulate why.
- Instead of ridiculing lame-sounding startup ideas, ask 'What Microsoft is this the Altair Basic of?' to uncover their potential.
- Sometimes there are multiple possible 'Microsofts' a startup could grow into, varying in size by orders of magnitude.
Novelty and Heresy
2 months ago
- Discovering new things often leads to accusations of heresy against established assumptions.
- Good but non-obvious ideas are hidden by mistaken assumptions that people strongly defend.
- Resisting heresy creates 'dead zones' of unexplored ideas around cherished false beliefs.
- Suppressing heresies blocks both direct contradictions and indirect implications against assumptions.
- Actively seeking heresies can turn dead zones into valuable sources for new ideas.
Fashionable Problems
2 months ago
- Many fields have only a small fraction of possibilities explored, despite extensive work.
- Even the smartest people tend to work on fashionable problems, being conservative in their choices.
- Unfashionable problems can be found in fields thought to be fully explored, like essays, Lisp, or venture funding.
- Discovering a new approach in a big but played-out field multiplies the value of the discovery.
- Genuinely loving what you do is the best protection against working on the same things as everyone else.
Name It, and They Will Come — overreacted
2 months ago
- The author describes the journey of discovering a new idea, building it into a project, and preparing for its public launch.
- Upon release, the project receives mostly irrelevant feedback, focusing on coding style, design, or generic industry debates rather than the core idea.
- The author suggests that truly novel ideas lack a shared vocabulary, causing people to fall back on discussing familiar topics like formatting or industry gossip.
- To overcome this, the author advises naming the problem and telling a story to make the new idea understandable and discussable.
<antirez>
2 months ago
- Complexity is being ignored when adding features or optimizing, harming software quality.
- Complex build systems and absurd dependency chains make software bloated and fragile.
- Telling new programmers not to 'reinvent the wheel' hinders learning and innovation.
- Lack of backward API compatibility and unnecessary rewrites damage existing systems.
- Adopting every new language, paradigm, or framework without consideration is destructive.
- Underestimating the difficulty of working with existing libraries leads to poor choices.
- Assuming de facto standards are always better than tailored solutions is harmful.
- Disregarding code comments and viewing software as purely engineering is misguided.
- Systems that cannot scale down make simple tasks unnecessarily complex.
- Prioritizing speed over thoughtful design destroys the joy of hacking.
You don't hire juniors to do menial chores
2 months ago
- The notion that LLMs replace juniors is flawed because juniors are essential for future senior succession.
- Juniors are a cost-effective source of innovation, bringing fresh knowledge and challenging existing processes.
- Hiring juniors acts as a stress test, improving organizational processes by exposing gaps and assumptions.
- Relying on LLMs long-term may be more expensive due to potential price hikes and vendor lock-in, while junior development is cheaper and builds cultural ambassadors.
Private healthcare makes industries less innovative. It's time for change
2 months ago
- Nearly 1 in 4 American workers stay in unwanted jobs due to employer-based health insurance, a figure rising to 41% for those with chronic conditions.
- Private healthcare suppresses wages and working conditions by reducing workers' mobility and employers' incentive to improve.
- Job lock prevents innovators from leaving to pursue new ideas, stifling industry innovation, especially in sectors like news.
- Universal healthcare, like the UK's NHS, removes fear of medical bills, improves health, and promotes innovation by enabling career mobility.
- Even libertarian think tanks acknowledge employer-sponsored health insurance creates coverage gaps and reduces income mobility.
Stop pretending billionaires built the future
2 months ago
- High taxes on the rich in mid-20th century America led to greater economic equality and innovation, such as the GI Bill and NASA funding.
- Tax cuts since the 1980s have increased wealth inequality and stagnant wages, linking innovation primarily to billionaire incentives.
- Historical evidence shows innovation thrived during periods of high taxation and government investment, not billionaire payouts.
Painting the sides of railroad rails white to reduce derailment
2 months ago
- Union Pacific painted rails white in high-heat areas to reflect sunlight and reduce rail surface temperature by about 20 degrees, lowering the risk of thermal misalignments.
- This innovative method blends European rail techniques with U.S. highway striping practices, applied using a high-rail truck and paint sprayer.
- The approach contributed to a broader safety strategy, helping Union Pacific achieve its best-ever full-year derailment incident rate in 2025, a 19% year-over-year improvement.
- The initiative represents a culture of safety innovation, combining proven practices, continuous monitoring, and practical thinking to strengthen rail safety.
- Rail is consistently the safest way to move freight over land, with incident rates far lower than trucking when measured by gross ton-miles.
Microsoft Comic Chat is now open source
2 months ago
- Microsoft Comic Chat, an IRC client that turned conversations into comic panels, is now open-source on GitHub.
- Originally released in 1996, it introduced Comic Sans font and used AI-like rules to generate character expressions and gestures from text.
- Developed by David Kurlander and team, with art by Jim Woodring, it represented innovative, playful early web experimentation.
- The open-source release includes original code and AI-powered modernization examples, preserving software history for community exploration.
- Comic Chat reflects 1990s internet optimism, encouraging unconventional creativity in online communication.
1X's NEO hand is genuinely impressive. The economics are brutal
2 months ago
- 1X's NEO hand features 25 degrees of freedom, tendon-driven actuation, and force transparency, enabling advanced manipulation like assembling LEGO, playing video games, and zipping jackets.
- The hand's design avoids 'write-only' issues through low gear ratios (5:1 to 15:1), allowing it to sense touch and force, with tactile sensors that detect slip and shear for precise control.
- 1X uses teleoperation for some demos, with plans for Scheduled Expert Mode, but this model could incur high labor costs, estimated at over $100 million annually for 10,000 units.
- Priced at $20,000 or $499/month, NEO likely sells at a loss per unit, with potential hardware losses in hundreds of millions, despite raising $137 million, far less than competitors like Figure AI ($1 billion+).
- 1X bets on vertical integration, manufacturing components in-house to reduce costs and improve capabilities, but faces challenges in reliability verification, software development, and funding constraints.
- The hand is a breakthrough in robotics, setting a new standard for humanoid robots, but 1X's business viability depends on scaling production, managing costs, and advancing AI to match the hardware.
NEO's Hands – An API to the Physical World
2 months ago
- 1X announces Bill Nash as new CFO, bringing financial leadership experience from ambitious tech companies.
- Breakthrough 25 Degree of Freedom (DOF) tendon-driven hands for NEO humanoid platform achieve near human-level dexterity, strength, safety, and reliability.
- These hands are designed to remove hardware limitations, making data the only barrier to robot capabilities.
- NEO can perform tasks like assembling LEGOs, using tools, grasping delicate objects, and communicating via sign language.
- The hands feature force transparency, backdrivability, and high-resolution tactile sensing for real-time feedback.
- They are IP68 waterproof, food-safe, and built for durability with millions of test cycles under high loads.
- Deep vertical integration of motors, sensors, and tendon systems enables rapid iteration and performance.
- Production capacity aims for 10,000 hands this year, scalable to support large-scale data collection for AGI development.
You're already living in the Chinese Century
2 months ago
- China's industrial plan aims to shift from 'Made in China' to 'Created in China', emphasizing quality and branding.
- Over 200 Chinese companies are developing humanoid robots, far exceeding the US count.
- Donghai county dominates the global crystal trade through capitalist hustle and live-streaming.
- Cloned 'super cows' in China produce nearly double the milk of typical American cows.
- China's battery industry leads globally, with over 80% of cells made there and factories expanding worldwide.
- Chinese electric vehicle sales are projected to vastly outpace US sales by 2025.
- China's space mission to the moon is more streamlined compared to NASA's complex plans.
- China is the largest textile manufacturer, producing massive clothing waste annually.
- Gene-editing scientist He Jiankui continues work privately after imprisonment, dubbed 'China's Frankenstein'.
- Crowdsourced sci-fi novel 'The Morning Star of Lingao' explores altering history through time travel.
- China set a world record for drone shows, replacing traditional fireworks.
- Women in China use AI companions and cosplayers for romantic relationships, dominating the market.
- China's algorithm registry regulates AI risks, creating a detailed map of the AI ecosystem.
- Chinese company Broad Group can erect a 10-story building in hours.
- China's renewable energy revolution is chaotic and competitive, driven by market forces rather than state control.
- China installed more solar capacity than the rest of the world combined in early 2025.
- Chinese police use DNA and facial recognition to help adoptees reunite with birth families.
- Chinese apps are essential within the Great Firewall, shaping digital experiences.
- Animated film 'Ne Zha II' became a billion-dollar hit in China, ignored by American audiences.
- China has more surveillance cameras than the rest of the world combined, challenging privacy notions.
- Homegrown Chinese products like sneakers and tech are trending, influencing global tastes.
- Smartwatches from Little Genius drive social competition among Chinese children, leading to hacking and dating.
- China's high-speed rail network far exceeds Amtrak's, with extensive mileage.
- Labubu, a Chinese collectible toy, gained global popularity, with expansion into manufacturing and film.
The Most Important Cheque in Economics
2 months ago
- A 1990 check for $576.07 settled a famous bet between economist Julian Simon and biologist Paul Ehrlich over resource scarcity.
- Ehrlich predicted that population growth would make metals like copper and tin scarcer and more expensive, while Simon argued human ingenuity would make them more abundant.
- Over a decade, despite a 19% population increase, the inflation-adjusted price of a basket of five metals fell by about 36%, proving Simon correct.
- The bet highlighted a key error: viewing resources as fixed gifts of nature rather than as matter combined with human knowledge and innovation.
- Simon emphasized that the ultimate resource is the human mind, which, when free to experiment and trade, can solve scarcity through invention and efficiency.
- The lesson is that prophets of permanent scarcity often underestimate human creativity and overestimate physical limits, a relevant insight today.
- The debate reflects two visions of humanity: people as mere consumers depleting resources versus as problem-solvers who create new wealth and expand possibilities.
Tiny data centre used to heat public swimming pool
2 months ago
- A small data center is used to heat a public swimming pool in Devon.
- The data center is free for the council-run leisure center, with electricity costs refunded.
- Heat is captured via oil and transferred to the pool water, saving thousands of pounds.
- Other pools have signed up, addressing rising energy costs that have led to pool closures.
Funding Your Own Disruption
3 months ago
- Kodak invented digital camera tech in 1975 but shelved it, dismissing its potential due to profitable film business.
- Netflix pivoted to streaming in 2007 while its DVD-by-mail service was still profitable and growing.
- The BCG Growth Share Matrix explains the strategic choice: reinvest Cash Cow profits into Question Marks to nurture future Stars.
- Kodak defended its Cash Cow (film) despite accurate internal predictions of digital takeover, leading to bankruptcy in 2012.
- Netflix intentionally diverted attention from its DVD business to fund streaming, treating disruption as inevitable.
- Netflix's Qwikster misstep in 2011, splitting services, caused backlash but was quickly corrected, highlighting the importance of fast feedback.
- Key takeaway: Success depends on funding disruption early, when mistakes are affordable, not just recognizing trends.

innovation

Why There Aren't More Googles

Frighteningly Ambitious Startup Ideas

How to Get Startup Ideas

How to Be an Expert in a Changing World

What Microsoft Is this the Altair Basic of?

Novelty and Heresy

Fashionable Problems

Name It, and They Will Come — overreacted

<antirez>

You don't hire juniors to do menial chores

Private healthcare makes industries less innovative. It's time for change

Stop pretending billionaires built the future

Painting the sides of railroad rails white to reduce derailment

Microsoft Comic Chat is now open source

1X's NEO hand is genuinely impressive. The economics are brutal

NEO's Hands – An API to the Physical World

You're already living in the Chinese Century

The Most Important Cheque in Economics

Tiny data centre used to heat public swimming pool

Funding Your Own Disruption