a day ago
- Occam's razor suggests preferring simpler explanations; the author proposes that the more charismatic candidate wins U.S. presidential elections.
- Examples cited include Clinton beating Bush Sr. and Dole, Reagan over Carter and Mondale, and Bush Sr. beating Dukakis, all due to charisma gaps.
- Counterexamples like Nixon 1968 are explained by avoiding TV debates; Kennedy 1960 involved fraud and early TV adoption.
- Democrats tend to lose because their ideology attracts earnest but dull candidates (e.g., Dukakis, Gore, Kerry), though Clinton broke the pattern.
- Since TV became widespread, the more charismatic candidate has won 11 consecutive elections, suggesting issues are neutralized by party strategies.
- The charisma theory is like a pricing anomaly: once recognized, parties will nominate equally charismatic candidates, making elections again about issues.