2 days ago
- Journalists and politicians confidently said coronavirus would be no worse than flu, but were mistaken.
- They felt safe making false predictions because outcomes are usually vague or forgotten.
- Epidemics rapidly and unequivocally falsify predictions, unlike other topics.
- This event is a powerful measure of credibility, like Warren Buffett's tide metaphor.
- We should remember these results as the most accurate test of credibility we are likely to have.