- OpenAI forecasts earning $100 billion annually from ads by 2030, but currently struggles to reach $1 billion.
- Emarketer analysis finds OpenAI's ad revenue projections are off by 90%, with chatbot ad market capped at $5.4 billion.
- Top AI companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are projected to earn under $1 billion combined from AI ads in 2026.
- OpenAI needs three major shifts: advertisers abandoning traditional platforms, outpacing Google and Meta, and a massive market expansion by 2030.
- Advertising is expected to make up 36% of OpenAI's total revenue by 2030; failure to meet projections could undermine its financial story and the AI investment bubble.