trade policy

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There Is Only One Way to Make Sense of the Tariffs
2 months ago
- Trump's tariffs return the US to the highest tariff levels since the late 1800s, before modern inventions like automobiles and aspirin.
- The policy lacks a coherent explanation, with competing goals (raising revenue, restoring free trade, reindustrializing) that are mutually exclusive.
- Tariff rates are applied arbitrarily, e.g., 50% on Lesotho, a poor nation, and 10% on uninhabited islands, revealing no logical economic basis.
- The tariffs reflect Trump's personality—grandiose deal-making, constant leverage, and chaos—rather than a sound economic strategy.
- Uncertainty from the tariffs discourages long-term investment and manufacturing, as firms fear frequent policy changes and global downturns.
Trump's War on the Future, Monetary Edition
2 months ago
- Brazil's digital payment system Pix has been highly successful since its introduction nearly six years ago, offering free or low-cost transactions and widespread adoption.
- The Trump administration plans to impose tariffs on Brazilian exports using Section 301, claiming unfair trade practices, partly due to Pix's success and perceived threat to U.S. companies like Visa and Mastercard.
- Pix, as a central bank digital currency, is argued to be analogous to digital paper money, with requirements similar to those for U.S. banks handling dollar notes, challenging the fairness allegations.
- Opposition to Pix stems from concerns over U.S. payment companies' profits, potential challenges to the dollar's international dominance, and ideological resistance to government-provided services.
- The Trump administration's broader hostility to progress, including blocking a U.S. digital dollar and renewable energy, is driven by special interests like crypto and fossil fuels, paralleling the Pix case.
- Tariffs against Brazil are unlikely to succeed economically or politically, potentially strengthening Brazil's position and President Lula, while highlighting the folly of Trump's policies.
Trump orders a halt to US trade with Spain
3 months ago
- President Trump announced a cut-off of trade with Spain over defense spending.
- He criticized Spain as a 'wasted cause' and directed the U.S. Treasury to end trade business.
- The statement was made before a NATO meeting in Ankara, reviving a feud with Madrid.
The End of North America
3 months ago
- Donald Trump declined to renew the USMCA, jeopardizing tariff-free North American trade and business certainty.
- NAFTA/USMCA enabled deeply integrated cross-border supply chains, especially in the auto industry, boosting competitiveness and lowering costs.
- Uncertainty from rolling negotiations is damaging; predictability is more valuable than low tariffs alone.
- Trade deficits with Mexico and Canada are highlighted, but these countries are top U.S. export markets, showing mutual dependency.
- China's influence looms, with concerns about transshipment through Mexico, leading to calls for conditional tariffs to protect regional industries.
- Job losses in manufacturing are largely not due to NAFTA/USMCA; protectionism is unlikely to restore them.
- Some experts advocate for a stronger North American integration, like a customs union, to counter global challenges.
- Trump's focus on trade deficits overlooks the benefits of integrated supply chains and long-term partnerships.

trade policy

There Is Only One Way to Make Sense of the Tariffs

Trump's War on the Future, Monetary Edition

Trump orders a halt to US trade with Spain

The End of North America