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COVID-19 Predictions & Rampant Speculation: May 2020 - Bert Hubert's writings
a day ago
- Monoclonal antibodies (mabs) are predicted to be the first game-changing COVID-19 medicines, useful for both prevention and treatment.
- Rapid antigen tests, even if not highly sensitive, are valuable for identifying infectious people from a public health perspective.
- COVID-19 will drive breakthroughs in vaccine technologies like mRNA, potentially benefiting flu shots and cancer medicine.
- Epidemiological models often fail due to ignoring variability in susceptibility and exposure; their overreliance is criticized.
- Vitamin D and sunlight exposure likely play a significant role in immune system performance against COVID-19.
- COVID-19 spread shows overdispersion, where most individuals infect no one, while a few cause superspreading events.
- The pandemic may advance molecular biology and medicine, similar to HIV's impact, and push scientific journals towards open access.
- Second waves in regions with prior outbreaks may be milder due to partial immunity from sub-infective exposures.
- Contact tracing apps may be less useful than quickly identifying superspreading events.
Vitamin D: the New COVID-19 Chloroquine? - Bert Hubert's writings
a day ago
- Vitamin D deficiency is strongly associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes, though it remains unclear if this is causal.
- Supplementing 2000-4000 IU/day of vitamin D3 or sensible sunlight exposure is recommended to avoid deficiency during the pandemic.
- Vitamin D plays key roles in immune regulation, including reducing cytokine storms seen in severe COVID-19.
- Research is polarized: some experts see vitamin D as crucial, others view it as a non-causal marker of health.
- Most randomized trials on vitamin D have been inconclusive, but benefits are clearer in deficient individuals.
- Sunlight exposure is important for overall health, with some studies linking avoidance to risks similar to smoking.
- Vitamin D status varies widely by geography, season, skin color, and lifestyle, complicating research.
Vitamine D: De motorolie voor ons afweersysteem - Bert Hubert's writings
a day ago
- Vitamin D is essential for the immune system, likened to motor oil for a car, but it is not a cure-all; a deficiency can impair immune function.
- Observational studies found that low vitamin D levels are linked to many diseases (cancer, heart disease, COVID-19), but early large-scale trials with vitamin D pills showed weak results because they included people without deficiencies.
- Newer, smarter trials targeting individuals with suspected low vitamin D found that supplementation reduces respiratory infections (including COVID-19) by 50-75%, and hospital COVID-19 patients given fast-acting vitamin D had 26 times fewer ICU admissions.
- Vitamin D status is influenced by sun exposure, diet, skin color, weight, age, and lifestyle; those with risk factors (overweight, dark skin, indoor lifestyle, winter) likely have a deficiency and benefit most from supplements.
- The recommended supplement is vitamin D3, with daily doses of at least 1000 IU (25 mcg) for most, and up to 3000 IU (75 mcg) for those with higher risk, taken with breakfast.
COVID-19: Things We're Not Even Trying - Bert Hubert's writings
a day ago
- The author expresses frustration that many promising treatments and strategies for COVID-19 are not being pursued seriously despite some evidence.
- The medical field is conservative, partly due to past scandals like falsified data on beta-blockers that cost many lives.
- Trials on remdesivir and hydroxychloroquine were rushed but ultimately failed, yet some drugs like dexamethasone proved effective for severely ill patients.
- Vitamin D deficiency is strongly associated with worse COVID-19 outcomes, but authorities are not actively promoting supplementation due to lack of 'proof.'
- Ivermectin has shown positive results in 22 studies, including 9 randomized controlled trials, but is ignored in treatment guidelines partly due to an early fraudulent preprint.
- Antigenic tests are fast, cheap, and can detect infectious individuals with high sensitivity, yet the medical field often dismisses them as inferior to PCR tests instead of considering their practical advantages.
- Other promising treatments like bromhexine and nebulised interferon beta-1a have theoretical support and some trial success but are not being adequately studied.
- The author calls for more institutional trials like the UK RECOVERY trial to gather evidence for these candidates.
The worthlessness of vitamin D is mildly exaggerated
a day ago
- Vitamin D was once thought to be a miracle cure for many conditions, but large randomized trials show it is not a miracle.
- The classical view holds vitamin D as a bone vitamin that regulates calcium absorption; severe deficiency causes rickets.
- Correlation studies linked higher vitamin D levels to better health outcomes, but these may be due to confounding and reverse causation.
- Large RCTs (WHI, VITAL, D-Health) found no significant benefit for all-cause mortality and only weak evidence for some outcomes.
- Daily dosing may be more effective than bolus (monthly) dosing, possibly avoiding harmful metabolic fluctuations.
- Biology and evolution suggest that moderate vitamin D levels (e.g., 80 nmol/L) are likely better than low levels (e.g., 40 nmol/L) and unlikely harmful.
- Meta-analyses show hazard ratios slightly below 1 for all-cause and cancer mortality with daily dosing, close to statistical significance.
- Most trials enrolled people with already moderate vitamin D levels, making modest effects hard to detect; people with low baseline levels might benefit more.
- Fortification of foods is common in many countries, indicating widespread acceptance of vitamin D’s importance.
- The author concludes that for people with low vitamin D levels, supplementing is a wise choice given weak but positive evidence and low cost.

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vitamin d

COVID-19 Predictions & Rampant Speculation: May 2020 - Bert Hubert's writings

Vitamin D: the New COVID-19 Chloroquine? - Bert Hubert's writings

Vitamine D: De motorolie voor ons afweersysteem - Bert Hubert's writings

COVID-19: Things We're Not Even Trying - Bert Hubert's writings

The worthlessness of vitamin D is mildly exaggerated