COVID-19 Predictions & Rampant Speculation: May 2020 - Bert Hubert's writings
a day ago
- Monoclonal antibodies (mabs) are predicted to be the first game-changing COVID-19 medicines, useful for both prevention and treatment.
- Rapid antigen tests, even if not highly sensitive, are valuable for identifying infectious people from a public health perspective.
- COVID-19 will drive breakthroughs in vaccine technologies like mRNA, potentially benefiting flu shots and cancer medicine.
- Epidemiological models often fail due to ignoring variability in susceptibility and exposure; their overreliance is criticized.
- Vitamin D and sunlight exposure likely play a significant role in immune system performance against COVID-19.
- COVID-19 spread shows overdispersion, where most individuals infect no one, while a few cause superspreading events.
- The pandemic may advance molecular biology and medicine, similar to HIV's impact, and push scientific journals towards open access.
- Second waves in regions with prior outbreaks may be milder due to partial immunity from sub-infective exposures.
- Contact tracing apps may be less useful than quickly identifying superspreading events.