22 days ago
- Sylvie Andrews and her partner lost their newly built home and a decade of sacrifices in the Eaton Fire in Altadena, California, in January 2025.
- The Eaton and Palisades fires destroyed over 16,000 structures and killed 31 people, while some bet on fire outcomes via prediction markets like Polymarket.
- Prediction markets allow betting on events like wildfires, with over $1.2 million wagered on Southern California fires, raising ethical concerns from survivors.
- Critics argue wildfire betting is morally reprehensible, crass, and could incentivize arson or insider trading by firefighters with exclusive information.
- A new platform, Wyldfyre, specifically for California wildfire betting, simulates trading and claims to turn collective intelligence into better forecasting.
- Federal and state firefighting agencies reject prediction market data, relying instead on scientific, physics-based models for wildfire forecasting.
- Politicians are proposing legislation to restrict prediction markets, including bans on betting related to terrorism or death, though wildfires aren't explicitly included yet.
- Fire survivors suggest that winners of such bets should donate their winnings to fire victims as a moral response.