The New Law of Electoral Politics
14 hours ago
- Many countries are experiencing a trend where incumbent parties are losing elections, driven by widespread voter dissatisfaction with elites.
- Global inflation and economic disruptions have eroded voters' purchasing power and confidence in ruling governments.
- The internet and social media have fragmented information flows, fueling populism, conspiracism, and a negative bias that undermines trust in elites.
- The U.S. has seen a shift from incumbency advantage to chronic dissatisfaction, with frequent party turnovers in elections since 2000.
- Kamala Harris’s unique position as both a fresh face and an incumbent allows her to distance herself from Biden's record while claiming credit where useful.
- Last-minute leadership changes, as seen in the UK with Boris Johnson, can boost electoral prospects by offering a perception of change.