elections

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Restzetels en voorkeursstemmen - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- The Dutch House of Representatives has 150 seats, and the electoral quota (kiesdeler) is total votes divided by 150, with exact fractions used.
- Initial seat allocation gives each party whole seats based on their votes divided by the quota, leaving remainder seats (restzetels) to be distributed.
- Remainder seats are awarded one by one to the party that would have the highest average votes per seat if they received the seat (D'Hondt method), recalculating after each allocation.
- Preference votes: candidates with more than 25% of the quota are prioritized for seats, followed by list order; this can bring in candidates who would otherwise not be elected.
- Parties may submit different lists per electoral district, adding complexity to seat allocation and candidate selection.
- The official Kiesraad provides detailed documentation on seat calculation, districts, and allocation procedures.
The New Law of Electoral Politics
2 months ago
- Many countries are experiencing a trend where incumbent parties are losing elections, driven by widespread voter dissatisfaction with elites.
- Global inflation and economic disruptions have eroded voters' purchasing power and confidence in ruling governments.
- The internet and social media have fragmented information flows, fueling populism, conspiracism, and a negative bias that undermines trust in elites.
- The U.S. has seen a shift from incumbency advantage to chronic dissatisfaction, with frequent party turnovers in elections since 2000.
- Kamala Harris’s unique position as both a fresh face and an incumbent allows her to distance herself from Biden's record while claiming credit where useful.
- Last-minute leadership changes, as seen in the UK with Boris Johnson, can boost electoral prospects by offering a perception of change.
The Affordability Curse
2 months ago
- The 2024 election was an 'affordability election' with Trump winning on promises to address rising costs but failing to deliver.
- In 2025, Democratic candidates Zohran Mamdani, Mikie Sherrill, and Abigail Spanberger won by focusing on affordability and tying cost increases to Trump and Republicans.
- Affordability is treated as a 'prompt' rather than a single policy, allowing Democrats to adapt messages to local electorates while maintaining a unified national theme.
- The focus on cost of living helped bring young voters back to the Democratic Party, as seen in Virginia where 18-29-year-olds provided a 35-point margin.
- Affordability politics poses governance challenges: national Democrats lack control over price levers, and local promises may be difficult to fulfill without effective governing.
- Democrats need to not only win on affordability but also govern effectively in the places they hold power to sustain long-term success.

elections

Restzetels en voorkeursstemmen - Bert Hubert's writings

The New Law of Electoral Politics

The Affordability Curse