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Corona Update 21 April - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- The Netherlands successfully kept IC capacity within limits by following strict rules, but healthcare workers need rest.
- Rapid home tests were unreliable; several countries wasted millions on them. Reliable antibody tests show 3% of Dutch blood donors had antibodies in early April.
- Large-scale trials are underway for treatments like the TBC vaccine, Camostat Mesylate, and Remdesivir, with early positive results.
- Vaccines are still 18 months away, but could be prioritized for high-risk groups. Weather may help slightly but is not proven to be decisive.
- Test capacity in the Netherlands is now sufficient, but logistics and organization remain bottlenecks. Testing is currently limited to severe cases and medical staff.
- Contact tracing is crucial for controlling the epidemic; apps and manual tracing need support. Children may be less susceptible, but data is limited.
- The effective reproduction number R_t is below 1 now, but careful monitoring and random testing are needed to avoid a second wave.
- Gradual easing of measures is possible if R_t remains under 1, combined with smart contact tracing and dynamic adjustments.
Antibodies on command? - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- Antibodies from recovered COVID-19 patients can provide temporary immunity or faster healing, but limited supply makes this infeasible for everyone.
- A new Chinese study successfully isolated over 200 antibodies from 8 recovered patients, cloned them, and tested their ability to neutralize the virus.
- One antibody, P2C-1F11, blocked half the virus's infectivity at a concentration of only 100 nanograms per milliliter (less than 1 in 10 million).
- The researchers also performed genetic analysis of the antibodies and confirmed they are specific to the virus, not binding to unintended targets.
- While cloning and producing these antibodies is promising for research, it remains uncertain whether they can be safely and rapidly manufactured for human treatment.
- The author notes that this kind of research seemed impossible a month ago but is now a reality, though it may be ready for future outbreaks rather than the current one.
Corona Science Journal - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- COVID-19 is far worse than seasonal flu, with significant mortality and strain on healthcare systems.
- Social distancing, hand washing, and coughing hygiene are effective measures to slow the spread.
- Warmer weather may slightly reduce transmission but strong measures are still necessary.
- Masks can reduce virus spread from asymptomatic carriers, but clear public messaging is essential.
- Risk factors include older age, hypertension, obesity, and smoking; more data needed.
- Several drugs (e.g., remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine) show promise but lack solid evidence; trials are ongoing.
- Monoclonal antibodies and convalescent sera are being investigated as treatments.
- Multiple vaccines are in development, but none yet proven in humans; mRNA vaccines show potential.
- Countries like China, South Korea have shown that strict measures can suppress local transmission.
- Testing limitations: PCR detects viral RNA, serology tests detect antibodies but have time lag.
- Reinfection appears unlikely in short term; immunity development is normal but duration unknown.
- Ibuprofen/NSAIDs safety uncertain; paracetamol is recommended until more data.
- Post-lockdown control may rely on testing, contact tracing, masks, and possibly seasonality.
- Many open questions remain about superspreading, children's role, and country-specific lethality.
Our amazing immune system - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- Viruses cannot reproduce without a host, and the immune system is over 99% effective against COVID-19, possibly up to 99.9%.
- The immune system is a highly advanced biological technology, far surpassing human-made inventions like protein recognition.
- Antibodies are produced by B-cells, which can mutate their DNA to create highly specific antibodies through an evolutionary process.
- When a virus binds weakly to a B-cell, it triggers cloning and mutation, refining antibodies over days for a perfect fit.
- Long-term immunity is established as B-cells become dormant but ready to reactivate quickly against reinfection.
Why no breakthrough yet? Or, why is it 'taking so long' to test COVID-19 treatments? - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- Many potential COVID-19 treatments exist, but none have proven 100% effective, and most are only 20-50% effective when used at the right time.
- Conflicting results from small trials are expected due to statistical noise; even a 50% effective treatment may show no improvement in a small sample.
- Well-coordinated large-scale trials are essential for reliable results, but they take time to organize and execute properly.
Tracing App Thoughts and Links - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- Countries are considering automated contact tracing apps to manage the COVID-19 outbreak beyond lockdown measures.
- Phone-based proximity detection using Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) or ultrasound can measure contact, but BLE can travel farther than virus particles, causing false alerts.
- Privacy-preserving protocols (e.g., DP-3T, Apple/Google) use anonymous identifiers and daily keys to avoid tracking, but require healthcare authorization for infection reporting.
- Challenges include false positives from neighbors or bus drivers, need for undo functionality, battery drain, and backend trust.
- The app is only part of a broader public health effort; clear messaging is essential to avoid user desensitization to alerts.
Corona: Hoe en waar krijgen we het? Niemand die het weet. - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- The author blogs about COVID-19, often explaining positive developments and the importance of good ventilation.
- The main complaint is that in the Netherlands, little is known about where and how people get infected, or which groups are most affected, despite GGD and RIVM having relevant data.
- Initially, new infections were traced back to Italy or Austria, but as cases rose, detailed contact tracing stopped.
- RIVM has published some studies (e.g., on schools) and statistics on healthcare workers, but not comprehensive data on infection locations or circumstances.
- Data could inform targeted measures (e.g., banning specific gatherings, improving ventilation) and allow low-risk activities to resume.
- Other countries show patterns: public transport dangerous in London/New York, meat processing plants in the US.
- The author urges release of interim results to guide behavior and measures, and calls for public demand for this information.
- Raw data needs careful statistical analysis to avoid misinterpretation.
RETRACTED: R and the Herd: Why we could be nearer to community immunity than we think - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- The author retracted the original blog post, admitting that earlier conclusions about herd immunity were incorrect.
- The post originally reviewed two scientific papers suggesting herd immunity thresholds could be lower due to individual variation in susceptibility.
- The author warns that non-experts should avoid writing about COVID-19 unless they are certain they can contribute usefully.
- The retraction highlights that understanding of respiratory disease pandemics, including herd immunity, was incomplete at the time.
Vitamin D: the New COVID-19 Chloroquine? - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- Vitamin D deficiency is strongly associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes, though it remains unclear if this is causal.
- Supplementing 2000-4000 IU/day of vitamin D3 or sensible sunlight exposure is recommended to avoid deficiency during the pandemic.
- Vitamin D plays key roles in immune regulation, including reducing cytokine storms seen in severe COVID-19.
- Research is polarized: some experts see vitamin D as crucial, others view it as a non-causal marker of health.
- Most randomized trials on vitamin D have been inconclusive, but benefits are clearer in deficient individuals.
- Sunlight exposure is important for overall health, with some studies linking avoidance to risks similar to smoking.
- Vitamin D status varies widely by geography, season, skin color, and lifestyle, complicating research.
Corona Update: Juli - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- The situation in the Netherlands is currently good, but the exact reasons remain unclear.
- COVID-19 infections primarily occur indoors; experts advise avoiding crowded indoor spaces.
- Vaccine development is progressing well, with 150 candidates in development and promising results in animal trials.
- Artificial antibodies (monoclonal antibodies) show effectiveness in animal models.
- Vitamin D deficiency is strongly linked to worse COVID-19 outcomes; supplementation is recommended.
- Hospital treatments have improved, including the use of dexamethasone for severe cases.
- The effectiveness of lockdown measures varies by country due to luck and local conditions.
- T-cells may play a key role in long-term immunity against COVID-19.
- Hydroxychloroquine has been proven ineffective against COVID-19.
- GGD contact tracing is active to quickly address potential outbreaks in the Netherlands.
Corona-update Eind Juli - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- Situation in the Netherlands is worsening but the exact causes are unclear; infections occur indoors.
- Vaccine development is promising, but it's unknown if they prevent disease or transmission; early data shows strong immune response in lab tests.
- Vitamin D deficiency prevention remains important; treatments like dexamethasone and SNG001 show reduced mortality and severity.
- Bromhexine (Bisolvon) combined with hydroxychloroquine showed significant improvement in a small Iranian study, but more trials are needed.
- Masks have symbolic value and may help, but 70% of infections occur among household or family contacts, so other measures remain crucial.
- Regional clusters in Randstad area; national second wave not yet confirmed; careful monitoring needed.
Vitamine D: De motorolie voor ons afweersysteem - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- Vitamin D is essential for the immune system, likened to motor oil for a car, but it is not a cure-all; a deficiency can impair immune function.
- Observational studies found that low vitamin D levels are linked to many diseases (cancer, heart disease, COVID-19), but early large-scale trials with vitamin D pills showed weak results because they included people without deficiencies.
- Newer, smarter trials targeting individuals with suspected low vitamin D found that supplementation reduces respiratory infections (including COVID-19) by 50-75%, and hospital COVID-19 patients given fast-acting vitamin D had 26 times fewer ICU admissions.
- Vitamin D status is influenced by sun exposure, diet, skin color, weight, age, and lifestyle; those with risk factors (overweight, dark skin, indoor lifestyle, winter) likely have a deficiency and benefit most from supplements.
- The recommended supplement is vitamin D3, with daily doses of at least 1000 IU (25 mcg) for most, and up to 3000 IU (75 mcg) for those with higher risk, taken with breakfast.
Some animated Dutch COVID-19 Figures - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- The author created an animation of Dutch COVID-19 figures using the 'date of onset' field to reduce the impact of testing delays.
- The data uses 7-day smoothed daily positive test numbers to effectively remove weekend effects.
- Week-on-week growth was 60% at the end of September, after which the daily growth rate dropped.
- Part of the decrease is attributed to the latency between symptom onset and positive test results, with the point shifting right over nine days of data.
- Another part of the decrease may be real, and the animation shows how the growth rate develops over time as more data arrives.
- When the three lines (current, one-day-old, two-day-old) are close together, the growth rate for that date is considered settled.
Dutch COVID-19 Data Sources & Their Interpretation - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- The three main Dutch COVID-19 data sources are RIVM (national disease notifications), LCPS (hospital capacity), and NICE (hospitalizations), each with different reporting methods and timeframes.
- RIVM's daily OSIRIS data includes positive tests, hospitalizations, and deaths, but the 'Date_statistics' field is overloaded (representing symptom onset, lab result, or notification date), causing confusion in trends.
- LCPS tracks bed occupancy (absolute numbers) and new admissions separately, while NICE reports admissions only (not discharges), leading to discrepancies between sources.
- GGDs provide weekly test counts and positivity rates, but do not include commercial rapid-testing data, which is largely unreported due to legal ambiguities and variation in reporting requirements.
- Derived data includes a government dashboard (in English) and a weekly 60-page PDF (in Dutch) with additional metrics like R number and test positivity.
- RIVM data fields include age group, sex, province, hospital admission status (only for COVID-19-specific admissions), deceased status, and week of death, but recovery is not tracked.
- LCPS data provides ICU and general ward bed counts for COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients, plus new admissions since October 17.
- NICE data includes suspected COVID-19 cases that may later be disproven, making recent data less reliable; their raw data feed is unofficial and requires careful interpretation.
COVID-19: Things We're Not Even Trying - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- The author expresses frustration that many promising treatments and strategies for COVID-19 are not being pursued seriously despite some evidence.
- The medical field is conservative, partly due to past scandals like falsified data on beta-blockers that cost many lives.
- Trials on remdesivir and hydroxychloroquine were rushed but ultimately failed, yet some drugs like dexamethasone proved effective for severely ill patients.
- Vitamin D deficiency is strongly associated with worse COVID-19 outcomes, but authorities are not actively promoting supplementation due to lack of 'proof.'
- Ivermectin has shown positive results in 22 studies, including 9 randomized controlled trials, but is ignored in treatment guidelines partly due to an early fraudulent preprint.
- Antigenic tests are fast, cheap, and can detect infectious individuals with high sensitivity, yet the medical field often dismisses them as inferior to PCR tests instead of considering their practical advantages.
- Other promising treatments like bromhexine and nebulised interferon beta-1a have theoretical support and some trial success but are not being adequately studied.
- The author calls for more institutional trials like the UK RECOVERY trial to gather evidence for these candidates.
Kerstdiner in Maart - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- The author learned from student life in Delft that Christmas dinner can be held in March.
- It is often difficult to find a common date in December for Christmas dinner due to busy schedules.
- Holding Christmas dinner in March works well and is actually easier for shopping.
- Currently, COVID-19 is still out of control, making it too dangerous to celebrate with elderly family.
- By March/April 2021, many elderly and vulnerable people will be vaccinated, and treatments improve.
- Recommendation: save recipes, keep decorations, and have Christmas dinner in March or April 2021.
- This increases the chances that everyone will still be alive next December.
Een inkijkje in de broncode van het BioNTech/Pfizer SARS-CoV-2-vaccin - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- The mRNA vaccine contains genetic code that instructs cells to produce the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein.
- The mRNA is modified with pseudouridine (1-methyl-3'-pseudouridylyl) to evade immune detection and enhance stability.
- The code includes a 5' cap, optimized 5' and 3' untranslated regions (UTRs), a signal peptide, and a codon-optimized spike protein sequence.
- Two proline substitutions in the spike protein stabilize it in the prefusion conformation, improving immune response.
- Codon optimization increases G and C content for higher protein expression efficiency.
- The poly-A tail has a unique linker sequence, possibly for further optimization.
- The vaccine leverages decades of research and is 95% effective.
COVID-19 Scenarios and a Short Break - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- The author is exhausted from answering pandemic questions, debunking rumors, and is taking a short break.
- Vaccine effectiveness will be judged by Israel's results, potentially reframing COVID-19 as a 'bad flu' or dashing optimism.
- Outcomes of Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca vaccine trials will significantly impact vaccination efforts and public mood.
- COVID-19 mutations could increase spread or escape immunity, requiring stricter measures or revaccination.
- Spring weather might reduce transmission, buying time for vaccine production, but this is not guaranteed.
- Medicinal breakthroughs and rapid testing acceptance could be game changers for treatment and event safety.
Corona Update: Licht aan het einde van de tunnel - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- Vaccines are effective against COVID-19, including variants, and reduce hospitalizations and deaths.
- Side effects of vaccines are minimal and well-studied, with serious effects being very rare.
- The virus has limited ability to evolve, and new variants are unlikely to appear endlessly.
- Vaccine technology is adaptable, allowing quick updates for variants and potential universal coronavirus vaccines.
- Vaccination provides stronger immunity than natural infection, and protection may last for years.
- Other vaccines (Novavax, CureVac) and promising antiviral drugs like molnupiravir are in development.
- Global vaccine production is ramping up, but distribution varies; booster shots are being tested.
- The future outlook is positive, but adherence to measures remains important until widespread vaccination.
Corona Update eind mei 2021 - Bert Hubert's writings
2 months ago
- All vaccines offer >90% protection against severe COVID-19, including variants.
- Vaccine-induced immunity is stronger and longer-lasting than natural infection.
- Mixing vaccines (e.g., AstraZeneca with Pfizer) is safe and effective, boosting antibodies.
- Antibody maturation continues for months after vaccination, increasing protection over time.
- The Indian variant (B.1.617) is not a 'monster'; current vaccines still prevent severe disease.
- Summer 2021 is expected to have very low COVID-19 numbers in the Netherlands.
- Booster shots may be needed by winter, but no evidence yet; 1 billion doses reserved by EU.
- Testing data becomes less reliable; hospital admissions and wastewater surveillance are more accurate.
- Aerosol transmission is now officially recognized; ventilation is key alongside distancing.
- Vaccination pace is high (over 1 million shots per week in Netherlands), accelerating age groups.
- Global vaccination is crucial to prevent new variants and control the pandemic.

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covid-19

Corona Update 21 April - Bert Hubert's writings

Antibodies on command? - Bert Hubert's writings

Corona Science Journal - Bert Hubert's writings

Our amazing immune system - Bert Hubert's writings

Why no breakthrough yet? Or, why is it 'taking so long' to test COVID-19 treatments? - Bert Hubert's writings

Tracing App Thoughts and Links - Bert Hubert's writings

Corona: Hoe en waar krijgen we het? Niemand die het weet. - Bert Hubert's writings

RETRACTED: R and the Herd: Why we could be nearer to community immunity than we think - Bert Hubert's writings

Vitamin D: the New COVID-19 Chloroquine? - Bert Hubert's writings

Corona Update: Juli - Bert Hubert's writings

Corona-update Eind Juli - Bert Hubert's writings

Vitamine D: De motorolie voor ons afweersysteem - Bert Hubert's writings

Some animated Dutch COVID-19 Figures - Bert Hubert's writings

Dutch COVID-19 Data Sources & Their Interpretation - Bert Hubert's writings

COVID-19: Things We're Not Even Trying - Bert Hubert's writings

Kerstdiner in Maart - Bert Hubert's writings

Een inkijkje in de broncode van het BioNTech/Pfizer SARS-CoV-2-vaccin - Bert Hubert's writings

COVID-19 Scenarios and a Short Break - Bert Hubert's writings

Corona Update: Licht aan het einde van de tunnel - Bert Hubert's writings

Corona Update eind mei 2021 - Bert Hubert's writings