Hasty Briefsbeta

All tags

ai bubble

17 stories total

Bilingual

Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When AI Bubble Bursts
18 hours ago
- Apple is relatively insulated from AI infrastructure costs compared to rivals like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon.
- Ed Zitron predicts Apple will mostly watch the AI bubble collapse from the sidelines, possibly making selective acquisitions.
- The Vision Pro was deemed a 'dud' but considered a future-forward product; Zitron suggests Apple should focus on miniaturizing it.
- The AI bubble is attributed to a lack of hypergrowth ideas and new interfaces in the tech industry.
AI Is Getting Way Too Expensive
21 hours ago
- The discussion about AI's impact on jobs is a distraction from the real economic issues.
- Anthropic and OpenAI use economic reports as marketing to propagate false beliefs about AI-driven productivity shifts.
- Actual AI industry revenues are tiny compared to the massive investments and commitments made.
- The AI bubble requires ever-increasing amounts of money to sustain, making profitability harder.
more...
The AI Industry Is Losing
5 days ago
- The author argues that the multi-trillion-dollar AI capital expenditure boom is unsustainable, driven by reckless spending from hyperscalers on speculative assets, with little to no actual demand outside of subsidized AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic.
- The BIS annual report confirms that hyperscalers' capex commitments outpace earnings and free cash flow, warning that disappointment in returns could trigger a sudden pullback, leading to a protracted investment bust with knock-on effects on borrowers across the supply chain.
- OpenAI and Anthropic are deeply unprofitable, with massive losses and compute costs, representing the majority of AI revenue (68% or more) and being subsidized by hyperscalers, making the industry's apparent revenue figures misleading.
- Companies like Oracle and CoreWeave have taken on enormous debt to serve AI compute, becoming heavily dependent on OpenAI's ability to pay, creating systemic risk if AI spending slows.
more...
The More You Buy, the More You Lose
4 days ago
- NVIDIA overstated Blackwell GPU efficiency gains, and AI nonetheless fails to make startups profitable.
- Hyperscalers have dramatically increased debt and capital expenditure for AI, with no disclosed AI revenue and growing cash-flow negativity.
- AI data center spending creates a vicious cycle: more demand raises hardware prices, requiring more debt, which becomes more expensive.
- Bond spreads for AI-related companies like CoreWeave indicate market anxiety about repayment ability.
more...
The AI-collapse pre-mortem - Bert Hubert's writings
5 days ago
- AI predictions from 2023 were largely accurate but underestimated the ensuing hype magnitude.
- LLMs are not truly intelligent but perform 'absolute miracles' in tasks like grammar correction and code debugging.
- The Chinese Room Argument remains relevant for debating AI intelligence vs. simulation.
- LLMs are compared to a chess-playing pigeon—impressive that they function at all, but often still useless.
more...
Premium: The Hater's Guide To The AI Bubble 3.0
5 days ago
- The author introduces a versioning system for updates on the AI bubble instead of volumes.
- The AI bubble is described as a psyop, melodrama, financial crisis, and exploitation of ignorance for trillions in investment.
- LLMs are real but don't fulfill promises like replacing 50% of white-collar jobs, as claimed by boosters like Dario Amodei.
- AI markets are driven by fan fiction and scams, with companies like OpenAI and Anthropic discussing potential rather than actual performance.
more...
AI Is Slowing Down
5 days ago
- The AI industry requires $3 trillion or more in revenue by 2030 to sustain its infrastructure, with planned data centers costing $9.5–15 trillion.
- Anthropic and OpenAI have made massive compute commitments ($770 billion+ and $330 billion+ respectively) that demand exponential revenue growth—$174 billion/year by 2029 for Anthropic and $184 billion for OpenAI.
- Token-based billing has exposed AI's lack of ROI: companies are capping spend (e.g., Uber at $1,500/month per user) and struggling to measure value.
- The AI economy is circular: labs pay hyperscalers, who invest back into labs, but the con requires ever-increasing demand—needing two more OpenAI-scale companies to justify existing compute.
more...
Premium: The Silicon Valley Bubble (Part 1)
5 days ago
- OpenAI and Anthropic are approaching IPOs despite burning billions and lacking profitability, raising concerns about their financial sustainability.
- OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman is vague about IPO timing, citing potential recursive self-improvement (RSI) as a reason to delay, but the company needs massive capital ($865 billion in four years) to meet commitments.
- Anthropic is using complex off-balance-sheet financing (e.g., a $35 billion SPV deal with Apollo and Blackstone) to fund growth, while resisting sharing financial details with lenders, indicating poor credit quality.
- Recursive self-improvement (RSI) is a theoretical concept being hyped as a future breakthrough, but critics argue it's a distraction from the lack of a viable business model for AI labs.
more...
AI's Brokenomics
5 days ago
- Anthropic was forced to shut down its Mythos and Fable models due to US export controls after a jailbreak by Amazon researchers, illustrating how AI hype backfired and drew government scrutiny.
- The AI tokenomics bubble is bursting as customers revolt against high costs of token-based billing; companies like Uber, Meta, and banks burned through budgets with no clear ROI.
- OpenAI and Anthropic are considering drastic price cuts within months of introducing token billing, but their business models are unsustainable due to massive subsidies (e.g., $200 subscriptions allowing up to $14,000 in token usage).
- Generative AI lacks a viable business model: costs far exceed value, training expenses are unavoidable COGS, and companies rely on subsidies, FOMO, and executive ignorance rather than real profitability.
more...
Premium: The Silicon Valley Bubble (Part 2)
5 days ago
- OpenAI lost $21 billion in 2025, spending $34 billion to generate only $13.07 billion in revenue.
- SoftBank contributed $867 million (6.6%) of OpenAI's revenue, likely inflating figures without proportional costs.
- The author argues Silicon Valley is a bubble, with no rational justification for such extreme burn rates.
- Silicon Valley has been captured by people who haven't built real things, relying on hype and fear-mongering rather than meritocracy.
more...
Cargo Culture
5 days ago
- The tech industry, especially AI, operates as a cargo cult, mimicking past successes without understanding why they worked.
- AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic burn massive amounts of money with no clear path to profitability, relying on hype and investor faith.
- Venture capital has shifted from funding innovation to funding hype, with most money going to late-stage deals and AI companies that simply funnel cash to hyperscalers.
- The AI bubble is sustained by symbolic thinking—comparing losses to past bubbles or using annualized revenue to obscure true financial health.
more...
Breaking news, and how the end might begin
5 days ago
- The AI boom may collapse if a key company, such as OpenAI, fails financially due to burning cash, losing market share, and making unsustainable commitments, triggering a tidal wave of consequences across the tech industry.
- Tokenmaxxing, the all-you-can-eat pricing model for LLMs, has died as companies shift to more expensive token-based pricing, leading to revenue loss and IPO challenges.
- Banks' refusal to accept OpenAI stock as collateral for a SoftBank loan indicates doubts about OpenAI's valuation, potentially hindering its IPO and risking a WeWork-like collapse.
- OpenAI's collapse could cascade to major companies like Oracle and NVIDIA, affecting the banking system, retirement plans, and possibly requiring bailouts.
more...
Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts
5 days ago
- LLMs have broken economics because their token-based costs are metered and unpredictable, unlike typical software subscriptions, and users often pay for wasted tokens.
- AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are unprofitable; they subsidize consumer subscriptions by giving away far more tokens than the subscription cost, and enterprise token billing has led to budget overruns (e.g., Uber).
- Most AI services are not differentiated or reliably useful, leading to low adoption and revenue concentration at OpenAI and Anthropic, with many startups unprofitable.
- AI data center construction is extremely expensive and debt-financed, but demand is mostly from unprofitable AI companies, risking a collapse that could hit pension funds and private credit.
more...
The Subprime Data Center Crisis
10 days ago
- The article draws a parallel between the AI data center bubble and the 2008 financial crisis, arguing that AI data center SPVs function like subprime mortgage CDOs.
- It claims that AI compute demand is vastly overestimated, with 70-90% coming from unprofitable companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, leaving 15 times more capacity planned than actual demand.
- Data center debt, estimated at over $500 billion, is hidden off balance sheets via SPVs and VIEs, allowing companies like Meta and Google to obscure true liabilities.
- Circular financing by NVIDIA—investing in and backstopping neoclouds like CoreWeave—artificially inflates demand for GPUs and debt.
more...
The AI Bubble Is No Ordinary Bubble
11 days ago
- The AI bubble is driven by hyper-rich corporations, not retail investors, and occurs despite high interest rates, making it unusual.
- It consists of two overlapping bubbles: massive capital expenditure on infrastructure (data centers, chips) and soaring company valuations.
- Tech companies are spending over $700 billion on AI infrastructure, which is propping up GDP growth, but they need huge future revenues to justify valuations.
- The bubble could burst if AI companies fail to generate profits, if communities ban data centers, or if Chinese competition reduces computing needs.
more...
Let AI Burn
24 days ago
- The AI industry is described as a bubble inflated by manufactured consent from Silicon Valley, media, and stock markets, lacking real demand.
- Generative AI is criticized for not being truly intelligent or autonomous, with high costs and unsustainable revenue models reliant on venture capital.
- Comparisons to the Dot Com Bubble are rejected, arguing AI GPUs lack the lasting utility of fiber optic infrastructure post-bubble burst.
- OpenAI and Anthropic dominate AI compute spending, but their revenues are unsustainable without continuous funding, masking weak industry-wide demand.
more...
Even banks and hyperscalers are now sounding the alarm about the AI bubble
a month ago
- Bank for International Settlements warns of AI bubble pop risking global economy
- Oracle's stock dropped 40% in a month, exposed to AI bubble risks
- Hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta invest billions with uncertain returns
- Risk extends to suppliers, construction firms, and small businesses
more...

firstprev0next

ai bubble

Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When AI Bubble Bursts

AI Is Getting Way Too Expensive

The AI Industry Is Losing

The More You Buy, the More You Lose

The AI-collapse pre-mortem - Bert Hubert's writings

Premium: The Hater's Guide To The AI Bubble 3.0

AI Is Slowing Down

Premium: The Silicon Valley Bubble (Part 1)

AI's Brokenomics

Premium: The Silicon Valley Bubble (Part 2)

Cargo Culture

Breaking news, and how the end might begin

Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

The Subprime Data Center Crisis

The AI Bubble Is No Ordinary Bubble

Let AI Burn

Even banks and hyperscalers are now sounding the alarm about the AI bubble