- The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is at risk of collapse, potentially already having a 10% chance of being locked in, which could cause significant cooling in northern Europe.
- AMOC ferries warm water north from the tropics; its slowdown is due to warming oceans reducing water density and melting Greenland ice adding fresh water, further weakening circulation.
- If AMOC collapses, northern Europe could experience temperature drops of 9 to 27 degrees F (5 to 15 degrees C), highlighting urgent need for emission reduction to mitigate risks.
- A modeling study suggests a 10% collapse risk even with emissions peaking by 2025 and minimal Greenland melt; this risk increases to 23% with more meltwater, emphasizing the importance of rapid net-zero efforts.